Are Mormons
Gullible Investors?
By Richard Halverson
Many years ago I worked for a
large investment organization in Missouri. (As you read this
article you will find it interesting to know that Missouri
refers to itself as the “show me state.”) A colleague of mine and I were in the
palatial New York offices of one of the country’s leading
investment bankers. After a long and animated discussion
regarding a new investment offering the senior member of the
investment banking team said, “This offer is so flaky the
only place it will sell is Salt Lake!”
I started to laugh, thinking
he was poking fun at me since I had grown up in Salt Lake.
However, I quickly realized this guy had zero sense of humor
and he thought I was from the Midwest. Worse, everyone else
was agreeing with him. On the flight home I asked my colleague,
“What was that Salt Lake crack all about?” He said, “Don’t
you know that Salt Lake is the investment scam capital of
the country? Those people out there will buy anything.”
I have many more years in the
investment business now and unfortunately I have come to realize
there is considerable truth in the reputation that Salt Lake
has to this day. The Intermountain West has been home to
some big financial scams. I know that members of the Church
are still sufficiently large in Utah that most things that
go on in the state are a reflection of the Mormon people.
I have also noticed the Brethren counseling members on this
subject from time to time. Although these days I hear them
spending more time counseling members to get out of debt.
I think unwise speculation and unwise and unwise accumulation
of debt may have some common roots.
Mormons may be More Gullible
than Other Investors
Over the year I have spent some
time thinking about why Mormons might be particularly vulnerable
to unwise speculation and/or debt management. Most of the
factors I have come to believe contribute to the problem are
factors that are general to members of the Church everywhere
and not just Latter-day Saints in Utah. These are not scientific,
they are just my opinions. See if they don’t make sense to
you.
First, most
people tend to judge others by themselves. If you are striving
to be honest and always tell the truth, there is a tendency
to assume others will do the same. Regrettably, that is not
always the case. Honesty is a wonderful attribute. However,
if it leads to naivete it can be dangerous. Christ was honest
but he never for a minute misunderstood where the Pharisees
and Sadducees were coming from. He knew when they were trying
to trick him.
Second, Latter-day
Saints have respect for people serving in visible Church callings.
A salesman tells us that Bro. X, who happens to hold a prominent
Church calling, is on the board of directors of the company.
Or we are told that Bro. Y — who is a beloved stake president
— is a big investor. Or the person doing the selling is on
the high council of his stake. There is a tendency for us
to set aside our own critical study and plunge in because
people we respect spiritually are involved financially. This
is not a leap of logic we are wise to make.
Third, some
Mormons are guilty of what I call righteous greed. We sometimes
reason that since we pay our tithing, attend the temple regularly
and always get our visiting teaching done in the first half
of the month we are entitled to a blessing. And the blessing
we want is a lot of money. (It may not be the blessing the
Lord wants for us.) We convince ourselves the Lord will make
the get-rich-quick scheme or the debt we are looking at work
out to our benefit. We reason to ourselves that as soon as
we are rich we will use the money to retire to a lifetime
of Church service. (Actual observation suggests many members
first want an expensive home and a luxury car before helping
out the poor and giving Church service.)
Avoiding Speculation
How, then, can a person avoid
unwise speculation? There is no substitute for hard work,
investigation and looking at things with a critical eye.
I am not talking about avoiding risk. All investing involves
risk and investing is good. I am talking about understanding
risk.
-
Make sure
you know how the investment works. Behind every investment
is a business that generates income. Be certain to understand
how the business works and what the risks to its success
are. If you hope the investment is going to pay big dividends,
where will the cash come from? If it is supposed to appreciate,
what will cause that to happen? One popular example among
Mormons is the pyramid-marketing scheme. You are recruited
to join a company as a dealer. You can make money by selling
the product or by recruiting other dealers to work under
you. Many of these companies sell real products and a few
people make real money. However, when you study how it
really works you discover the only way to make real money
is by recruiting a lot of people to work under you. If
you run the math you will typically find 80% of all the
dealers are in a deficit position all the time. Is it really
attractive if you have an 80% chance of losing money? Is
it really attractive if you make money but only by recruiting
a lot of friends who wind up in the 80% losing money? The
way the math works, it is almost impossible for everyone
to make money.
- Read the prospectus or offering
statement. All publicly distributed investments should
have one. I know they are absolutely mind-numbing to read,
but they have a lot of useful information. Pay particular
attention to the section on risks. Often the items in here
are required boilerplate. Things that say something like,
“There can be no guarantee the boss will come to work tomorrow.”
Other risks are worth finding out more about. Statements
like, “The Company has never sold this product before, needs
to win a patent suit before it can, and will then be in competition
with ferocious competitors.” (They probably won’t word things
just like this, but you get the idea.) Incidentally, if you
are not offered a prospectus, ask for one. If the salesperson
does not have one, be very suspicious. Listen to his explanation
— then ask an attorney if the explanation makes sense.
- Dig to understand if there
are any conflicts of interest that run counter to your interests.
These are situations where insiders can make a lot of money
at your expense. I think of a real estate partnership that
was sold in Utah. The partnership was raising money to buy
and develop a piece of land. When the facts were known, the
man who was president of the general partnership (and an allegedly
good member of the Church I might add) was the sole owner
of a private company that had an option on the land. This
means the president controlled the land by investing almost
none of his own money. He was going to buy and sell it in
his shell company with the investors’ money and reap a huge
profit. To make matters worse there was going to be an 8%
brokerage fee paid. Guess who owned the company that was
getting that? Then to add insult to injury the general partnership,
owned by the president of course, was taking a huge fee for
raising the money. Of every $1000 invested by investors $320
wound up in the president’s pocket before any development
began. Is it any surprise the ultimate development was under
capitalized and never succeeded? (The president made a bundle,
though!) These can be tough to discover. Real scam artists
are very good at hiding these facts. But common sense and
the offering statement will help you identify most of the
conflicts.
- Are you counting on someone
dumber than you to buy the investment from you when you are
smart enough to think it is time to sell?Don’t play the
greater fool game ‘lest you learn the hard way who the greatest
fool really is. Perhaps a classic example was the Internet
stocks. That speculation was hardly exclusive to Mormons.
We have saw companies that were barely real companies snapped
up on the original public offering and given values in the
billions just because they claimed to be Internet stocks.
Talking to buyers you basically heard, “Sure they look overpriced
but they are moving up fast. So after I double my money I’ll
get out.” I would ask, “Who will buy it from you then? You
think it is overpriced now. According to that thinking it
will be doubly overpriced when you want to sell it!” The
answer was, “I don’t know, someone will.” (Translated, I’ll
find a greater fool than me.) I am sure you have not forgotten
what happened to most of those companies. Even the survivors
fell over 90% in value.
- Understand how the investment
is priced. If it trades on a public exchange or does
the company tell you what it is worth?
- Does success of the investment
depend upon the successful occurrence of complex events? Remember the chain is no stronger than its weakest link.
- Is the investment time sensitive?
Money invested in an option that must be exercised before
a certain time is at risk. Savings needed to pay college
tuition that are invested in a volatile asset are at risk.
A few years ago there was a story covered in the papers.
A student preparing to go medical school in the fall opened
an account with an online trading service in the spring.
He invested all the money he had saved for medical school
in volatile high tech companies. Then he margined them, meaning
he borrowed money to buy more. By September of the stocks
plummeted and he got wiped out. But he apparently had thought
of a safety net. He is sued the broker. Despite the fact
he electronically signed a statement he knew what he was doing,
he went on to claim that they should have known better than
too ever let him do it. Brokers do have a legal obligation
to qualify their clients but this is ridiculous. (If he ever
does get through medical school I’ll bet he’ll be the first
to complain about frivolous malpractice suits.)
- Does the potential return
seem to be very large? Be particularly careful if at
the same time the risk seems small. Free capital markets
simply do not work that way. Potentially large returns are
associated with large risks, etc. I am aware of a terrible
case that sucked up a number of Mormons in a part of the country
outside Utah. The principles of the company were not Mormon
but some of the sales people were and this scam spread through
the Mormon community like wildfire. This company asked people
to invest with them. They used the money to buy accounts
receivable at a discount from hospitals. Allegedly collecting
money is so difficult for hospitals they were willing to sell
them to the company for $0.70 on the $1.00. The company was
very efficient in filing insurance claims and collecting so
they could make a big profit. If you know anything about
the medical business, you know that to this point it makes
sense. Other industries do it too. It is called factoring.
I was asked to look into the opportunity. Soon there were
a lot of things that didn’t make sense. The investors were
being promised 20% dividend returns. There was no prospectus.
It looked like a security but it was not registered with the
SEC. If the margins were this huge, why wasn’t every finance
company in America getting in? Then a company representative
told me that the president of the company was a millionaire
many times over and liked paying this much out to share his
good fortune with other people. That’s when I hung up the
phone. I don’t want to offend my readers, but only Mormons
will buy a line like that. It just doesn’t happen in the
real world. For several years the company kept paying the
dividends and I looked like an idiot. Then without warning
the feds swooped in and shut him down. It was a huge Ponzi
scheme. That means they were using the money from new investors
to pay dividends to the old investors. The high dividends
attracted more investors, etc. The president is now in jail
and I have friends who have lost their retirement.
- Will you have to borrow heavily
to make the investment? Borrowing increases the risk.
- How serious would it be to
you if the investment fell in value or cut its dividend and
how likely is that to occur based on history? There is
an old adage of not investing money you can’t afford to lose.
This tends to over simplify the problem. In most cases we
aren’t going to lose it all. But we may lose enough to hurt.
The question is making a reasonable assessment of risk in
your situation.
- How stressful would it be
to you financially or emotionally if the investment resulted
in a substantial loss? Don’t forget to consider your spouse and family when
you are considering the potential stress.
- Understand how the person
selling the investment to you is being compensated. They
have a right to make money but the commission should be reasonable.
If not their integrity may be questioned. For example, you
may not be aware securities brokers generally make a much
bigger commission selling a new underwriting than an existing
security. That is especially true if it is hard to sell.
The problem is that many brokers in their eagerness to earn
money push the security to people who should not own it. The
broker making good money doesn’t mean it is bad; it is just
something you should think about.
- Are you getting a high pressure,
emotion filled sales pitch? Pressure is a bad sign.
- Does there seem to be a frenzy
associated with this investment? Investment frenzies
often go much further than they should. The problem is they
end abruptly, without warning and with great loss to the investors
holding the “old maid” when it is over.
- If it seems to be too good
to be true it probably is. I know it is an old cliché
but it is accurate.
Risk is Part of Investing
After reading this list one might
think there is nothing but government insured savings accounts
to put money into. That is not what is meant. There is nothing
wrong with taking risk. The key is to understand the risks,
compare them to the rewards and to your ability to absorb
the risk.
Speculation is Everywhere, but
Mormons may be More Susceptible
Mormons are not the only ones
susceptible to a fast sales pitch and a speculative urge.
Speculation is a result of three elements.
1. Greed. This is really
the fanciful imagination of what we can do with a lot of money.
2. Ignorance. Sometimes we
just do not know enough to ask the right questions or understand
the answers when we receive them. Sometimes we could understand
the answers, but they have been carefully hidden from us and
we don’t know how to find them.
3. Laziness. Often we just
do not invest the time to understand. If we viewed earning
money from investments as a sort of part-time job we would
recognize we need to work hard to succeed.
No, Mormons are not the only
ones susceptible to a fast sales pitch and a speculative urge.
However, if we are righteously greedy, ignorantly naïve and
lazy enough to believe the Lord will do all the work for us,
then we may be more susceptible to speculative scams than
almost anyone. It may be true that Zion is where the pure
in heart dwell. But I hope I am never sitting in some investment
banker’s office only to hear him say, “This deal is so flaky
the only place it will sell is in Zion.”