Let us be honest: As the moment of John McCain's announcement of his running mate draws nearer, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are wondering whether Mitt Romney will be McCain's choice. No one knows what will happen, of course; but although I was once quite sure Romney had no chance, it does look more and more like things are going Romney's way.

Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard called the Govenrnor “ the obvious choice ” back in March, and others have joined him.

Not surprisingly, Romney's Mormonism comes up in almost every story about his chances in the “veepstakes.” (We've been blogging about that phenomenon at Article VI Blog for months now.) The general consensus seems to be that Mitt's faith will not be a serious issue in the general election if McCain chooses to run with him.

I want to believe that, and I think I do; even so, I believe there will be at least a few religion-related bumps in the road for a McCain-Romney ticket. Two of those seem most important: The expected opposition of at least a portion of conservative Evangelical voters, and the likely (some would say inevitable) misuse of the Church's former practice of polygamy to confuse ill-informed voters about Romney's religious beliefs.

1. The Evangelical “Problem”

The Huckabee forces make a play. Just as I was completing this article, a Washington Times story appeared with an ominous headline: “ Evangelicals warn against McCain-Romney ticket.” There's not too much to the story, however. It turns out that the Evangelicals who are quoted expressing serious concerns happen to be supporters of former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.

As my Article VI co-blogger John Schroeder asked, “Well, what does that tell you? John, who is himself an Evangelical Christian, also noted that “prominent evangelical leaders” involved include Christian author Tim LaHaye and the Rev. Rob McCoy, of Calvary Baptist Church in Thousand Oaks, California:

The same day, Matt Lewis of Townhall magazine called the Washington Times story “recycled” and bogus:”

My co-blogger John wrote a devastating critique of the Washington Times story the next day.

A prominent Mormon argues against selecting Romney . And he's a famous one — whom I respect greatly. On his own website, Orson Scott Card asks McCain not to name Romney his running mate . Why? Here are the crucial paragraphs from OSC's letter to Senator McCain:

(Emphasis added.) OSC is a keen observer of national politics and has lived in North Carolina for many years, so his views deserve respect and attention. Truthfully, I don't know if he is right or not. I think he is wrong; I fear he is right.

For example, there really are no hard polling data supporting OSC's assertion, but ... but ... are polls worth anything in this context? Do people answer questions about The Question honestly? Outside the sanctity of the voting booth, will likely voters really admit, unashamedly, that they would never vote for a Mormon?

Yes, in the primaries Romney actually did well among Evangelical voters. But what about that chunk of Evangelicals in places like South Carolina who went overwhelmingly for Huckabee? We suggested at Article VI Blog that the pro-Huck Evangelical vote was based on identity — the "he's one of us" phenomenon.

But did all those pro-Huck voters make their choice on that basis? Lurking among that slice of the Evangelical vote, is there a sizable group who will be " unenthusiastic, with large numbers of them sitting it out," as OSC claims?

How will anti-Mormon voters really vote in a race involving a Mormon vice presidential nominee? Will they vote at all? And is the group of voters who actually care about a candidate's religion big enough to make a difference? The fact is, no one really knows.

My Evangelical co-blogger is less worried than I am, and wrote that Romney's Mormonism “is a problem only for a minority of Evangelicals.” The "one of us" phenomenon that helped Huckabee, John thinks, will not be a force in the general election: “What a Romney veep nod would do is marginalize the radically conservative and bigoted Evangelical minority permanently. Not such a bad thing in my book.”

I hope John's right, but my own political crystal ball has never worked very well.

2. The General Election: Polygamy again; and the Church Takes A Strong Stand

The uses of ignorance about Mormonism. If Romney does end up back in the race as the vice presidential candidate, one has to wonder about dirty campaigning by his opponents. For example, when the controversy in Texas erupted over the polygamous FLDS movement, Romney had suspended his campaign. What if he had not yet withdrawn? Would the news media, pundits, and the opposing campaign or its surrogates or sympathizers use the FLDS drama to smear Romney and McCain?

A poll conducted by the Church revealed that there is indeed cause for some concern:

In addition, when asked specifically which religious organization members of the polygamous group belonged to:

Now ask yourself: In the general election, what might opponents of the McCain-Romney ticket do with this opportunity to obfuscate? The picture is not pretty.

The Church draws a line in the sand. On the brighter side, it appears unlikely that the mainstream news media, at least, would be hard-pressed to be willing participants in such confusion-mongering. Elder Lance Wickman, a general authority and the Church's General Counsel, issued a letter to the news media that included these significant paragraphs:

It is significant, I think, that the letter came from legal counsel and not simply from the Church's Public Affairs department, which has been issuing similar requests for years. Also notable is the request that the letter be distributed not just to the news media's editorial staff, but also to their corporate legal counsel. The Church does not threaten legal action often, and the tone of Elder Wickman's letter could not be kinder or more respectful; but the implicit threat of legal action seems quite remarkable to me.

I am sure that somewhere within Team McCain, these issues have been discussed. My guess is that in the end, McCain will make his decision on other grounds, and that if Romney is McCain's choice, any new media organization that actually uses editors will do its best to avoid smearing Romney by association with the FLDS or any other such organization.

If you held a gun to my head and made me issue a prediction, I'd say that McCain will probably choose Romney, and that if he does, questions will be raised about Mitt's faith. After all the votes are in, however, I think Mormonism will be a marginal matter with no impact on the outcome.

Time will tell. That's the great thing about political prognosticating — eventually, we find out who was right and who was wrong.

Lowell C. Brown is co-author of Article VI Blog, http://www.article6blog.com, which is devoted to discussion and analysis of the religious issues surrounding the 2008 presidential election. Lowell is also a Los Angeles-based attorney who is a partner in Arent Fox LLP, where he practices corporate health law for institutional health care providers. He describes himself as an active, committed, convinced Mormon and has served in a number of callings in the Church, his favorite of which was Scoutmaster. The views expressed here are Lowell's own.