The world has been re-awakened to the specter of the pandemic – how quickly and uninvited they arrive, and how alarmingly fast they can spread to many nations. Historically, there are records of pandemics going back to the days of Hippocrates, which was 2400 years ago. Records kept since then show that pandemics have occurred about every 20-40 years. Since the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968, we are at 41 years.
Similarities that make us wary of H1N1
The H1N1 swine flu outbreak of the last three weeks has much in common with flu pandemics of the 20th Century, including the devastating 1918 H1N1 flu.
Like the first wave of the 1918 flu, the 2009 outbreak has been relatively mild, with the exception of cases in Mexico City . Additionally, the first wave of the 1918 outbreak lasted only a few weeks, as this current outbreak appears to be doing. There was widespread flu, but a limited number of deaths.
Like the 1918 Spanish flu, the 2009 edition of H1N1 swine flu first appeared after the seasonal flu period had ended. In 1889, a flu strain first appeared in London in May, but the 1918 flu virus arrived in March. The 1957 flu virus hit the U.S. in September, and the 1968 virus arrived in July.
Like the 1918 flu, the current H1N1 has affected mostly young adults and older teenagers. The traditional flu usually has a greater affect on the very young and the old. During the 1918 outbreak, pregnant women were the group with the highest death rate.
Like the 1918 flu, the 2009 flu is an H1N1 variety. It includes elements of the seasonal flu, bird flu and swine flu.
The work underway now, behind the scenes
As we know, pandemics traditionally arrive in waves, the first being the shortest and least deadly. It is likely we will see a second and possibly even a third wave. Just when everyone has gone back to life as usual and dismissed the first wave as just a strange little flu, the second wave hits and everyone is caught off guard.
Scientists at Winnipeg 's National Microbiology Laboratory were the first to successfully complete a genetic blueprint of the H1N1 virus. British scientists have also announced they have produced a “map” of the virus. These will help to explain how the virus infects people and what the next steps are to produce a vaccine. Scientists are quick to remind us, however, that a vaccine may not be available for four to six months.
In past pandemics, the time between the first and second waves has been six months. The current flu strain first appeared in late March which would place the second wave some time around the end of September – plus or minus a few weeks. The vaccine may not be available until the end of September, at the very earliest. What this means for all of us is that we need to continue preparing as though there will be no vaccine in time for the second wave.
What if the vaccine is available? Will there be enough? Who will get it first? What about developing countries? And of course, will it be effective if the virus has mutated before it returns?
What if the second wave never comes? In a word: Wonderful. Then we are more prepared for whatever else may come our way, and free to enjoy our lives with a little more thanksgiving in our hearts.
Nine things we have learned from past pandemics
What have we learned from past pandemics so we can be prepared in case this virus resurfaces in a few months?
One: The second wave is more deadly than the first. This helps us to respond more proactively when we hear the flu has resurfaced somewhere in the world. We can immediately stock up on any last minute supplies we may need, if they are available. We can fill our gas tanks so we have that extra fuel for trips to the doctor or to use for our generators if the power should fail.
Two: The incubation period for a pandemic flu virus is 1-4 days. This means that once a family member, classmate or fellow worker shows signs, you have been exposed.
Three: Quarantines work. In schools that shut their doors as soon as they suspected a case of the flu, it did not spread. Those who waited for confirmation of the illness saw more cases emerge. Once a school was closed and students who were ill quarantined, the spread slowed down or stopped. During the 1918 pandemic the evidence strongly highlights the value of isolation. See our Meridian Magazine article: Pandemic or Not Are You Ready For the Swine Flu? Quarantines should last until 24 hours after all symptoms and fever have passed.
Four: Those living in rural areas survived the best. If you have a few acres of land you are much more likely to remain healthy - if you self-quarantine early. In past pandemics, those with land planted gardens and continued to have food to eat. Those in the city became desperate and often violent as the food chain was disrupted and store shelves emptied. We saw signs of this problem emerge in reports from Mexico City last month.
Five: All public gatherings should be avoided completely - church, school, work, everything. If you have to go into a public setting, you should maintain a six foot separation between yourself and others and follow all the cautionary instructions regarding the wearing of N95 face masks, etc. (in a pandemic scenario).
Six: Infrastructure will fail. First responders will become ill. Once this occurs we may find ourselves dependent on our own resources. During the aftermath of Katrina it took only hours before looting and civil unrest began because there were not enough first responders. Staying home, working from home (if possible), schooling at home, and worshipping at home during those critical days and weeks may be the best strategies.
Seven: Multiple emergencies can happen at once. While we have fought the flu the last few weeks, there were earthquakes in Mexico City , California and China ; volcanic unrest in Alaska ; a firestorm in Santa Barbara ; deadly thunderstorms in the Midwest , and tornados in the East. If any of these happen during a pandemic, utilities will be slow to restore since many workers will be quarantined with their families, or ill. Damaged power grids and water systems may remain unrepaired for longer periods.
Eight: Schools and workplaces are not prepared. Many of the schools which closed in the first wave were not able to send work home with their students. Employers sent out memos urging good hygiene habits, but little more. If your school or workplace had a great plan they were able to implement, please send me a copy. If your school or workplace does not have a plan, now is the time to strongly encourage them to get one. If your school is not prepared this would be a good time for you to get some books, workbooks, flashcards, and/or DVDs with which to teach your children. If your workplace is not prepared, now is a great time to encourage them to look at their organization and design ways that people can work from home, or work in shifts that downsize the number of people in the office at one time. You cannot maintain a six foot distance from a co-worker if you are in a crowded work environment.
Nine: The majority of deaths during a pandemic are caused by dehydration and the complications that follow, such as pneumonia. Be prepared with plenty of fluids to keep the healthy hydrated and to re-hydrate those who are ill.
Prepare today
